Verified October 17, 2026 against the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) September 2026 statistics release and its revised resale market forecast, both published October 16, 2026, and CREA’s July 15, 2026 forecast.
The short version: Canadian home sales fell 2.3% from August to September and were 7.7% lower than in September 2025. The same day, CREA cut its 2026 forecast for the third quarter in a row. It now expects 444,530 resale transactions this year, down 5.2% from 2025, and a national average price of $681,681, essentially flat. CREA blames the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates and the growing expectation that the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate. For Ontario, CREA now expects the average price to fall 3% this year.
September by the numbers
| Measure | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Home sales (seasonally adjusted) | Not stated in units | -2.3% from August |
| Actual home sales | Not stated in units | -7.7% from September 2025 |
| New listings (seasonally adjusted) | Not stated in units | -1.8% from August |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 48.8% | 49.1% in August |
| Months of inventory | 4.9 | Up slightly from the summer |
| Total listings at month end | Just over 200,000 | +1.8% from a year earlier |
| MLS Home Price Index, composite | Not stated | -0.4% from August, -3.4% from a year earlier |
| Average sale price (actual) | $666,538 | -1.6% from a year earlier |
Sales and listings both slipped. New listings fell 1.8% after a rebound in August, and CREA says new supply has generally been declining since early 2025. Because sales fell a little faster than listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 48.8%. CREA treats a ratio between about 45% and 65% as balanced, and the long-term average is 54.7%. The market is still balanced on that measure, but closer to the buyer’s side.
Inventory is normal, not high. At 4.9 months, inventory is in line with the long-term average. CREA’s thresholds put a seller’s market below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.4 months.
Prices turned down again. The national composite MLS Home Price Index fell 0.4% in September after four months of stable readings. CREA says Ontario saw a fresh price decline as demand softened, while gains on the Prairies, in Quebec and on the East Coast partly offset it. The 3.4% annual decline is the first time since January that the year-over-year drop has widened.
CREA notes that the national average price can be skewed by sales in the most expensive markets, so the Home Price Index is the better guide to like-for-like price changes.
The revised forecast
| Measure | July forecast | October forecast | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 sales | 463,336 (-1.4%) | 444,530 (-5.2%) | 18,806 fewer |
| 2026 average price | $686,710 (+1.1%) | $681,681 (+0.2%) | $5,029 lower |
| 2027 sales | 480,567 (+3.7%) | 464,235 (+4.4%) | 16,332 fewer |
| 2027 average price | $694,164 (+1.1%) | $689,909 (+1.2%) | $4,255 lower |
Differences are Local Toronto calculations from CREA’s published figures.
The bigger change is in sales, not prices. CREA now expects close to 19,000 fewer transactions this year than it did in July, while its average price forecast moved by about 0.7%. The 2027 rebound looks larger in percentage terms (4.4% instead of 3.7%) only because it starts from a lower 2026 base. In units, CREA’s 2027 forecast is about 16,000 sales lower than before.
Provincial notes
- Ontario: average price expected to fall 3% in 2026. In July, CREA expected a drop of less than 1% and said Ontario was the only province forecast to see sales rise this year.
- British Columbia: average price expected to fall 0.8% in 2026.
- Newfoundland and Labrador: price gains of 5.7% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. It is the only province where CREA did not cut its sales forecast.
- Saskatchewan: price gains of 5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
- Other provinces: low-to-mid single-digit price growth in 2026. In 2027, CREA expects sales gains of 3% to 6% in most provinces and price gains under 2% outside Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan.
CREA’s October release does not give provincial sales forecasts in the text.
How the forecast fell through 2026
| Forecast | Expected change in 2026 sales |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | +5.1% |
| April 2026 | +1.0% |
| July 2026 | -1.4% |
| October 2026 | -5.2% |
Over nine months, the outlook swung from a solid gain to a clear decline, more than 10 percentage points in all. CREA itself described 2026 as a roller-coaster year.
Why CREA cut again
CREA’s forecast release lays out the sequence. Fixed mortgage rates rose after the start of the Iran conflict, eased over the summer and then rose again. By early September oil prices were climbing, the Bank of Canada had taken what CREA calls a notably more hawkish tone, and financial markets were pricing in roughly 100 basis points of rate hikes over the next year.
Fixed rates follow bond yields, which react to those expectations before the Bank acts. That is why fixed-rate borrowers felt the change first, and why CREA links September’s drop to the shift in fixed-rate affordability plus uncertainty over how far variable rates could climb. Our explainer on why mortgage rates are rising while the Bank of Canada holds covers that link in more detail.
“Many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. He said the decline was “hardly surprising given the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates” and the expectation of a rate hike before year-end. “Until that becomes clearer, this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines.”
CREA Chair Garry Bhaura said the start of the fall market has been met with “an even larger jump in fixed rates,” but that buyers may find more choice and more room to negotiate. “For sellers, a well thought out pricing strategy will become even more important,” he said.
CREA’s 2027 forecast assumes slow but positive economic growth, a return to higher population growth, more certainty about interest rates and limited action by the Bank over the next year. The release says the current economist consensus leans toward the Bank raising rates by less than markets are pricing in. It also calls the size of any tightening “a major unknown,” so the 2027 numbers carry more risk than usual.
Ontario and the GTA
Ontario is where the September weakness showed most in prices. CREA singled out the province for a fresh decline in its Home Price Index, and its 3% average price forecast for 2026 is the weakest of any province named in the release.
The GTA data released earlier this month points the same way. According to TRREB, the GTA average price in September 2026 was $1,006,409, down 5.1% from a year earlier, and sales fell 9%. Our Toronto housing market report for September 2026 breaks that down by city and home type.
The regional picture is not uniform. In Brampton, for example, the September sales-to-new-listings ratio rose from a year earlier even as prices fell, because new listings dropped by about a third. Local conditions can differ a lot from the national averages.
What it means for buyers and sellers
If you are buying
- You have more choice and more time. With about 4.9 months of inventory nationally and prices drifting lower in Ontario, there is less pressure to bid over asking on most homes.
- The rate is the risk. A rate hold or pre-approval protects you against further increases while you shop. Ask your lender how long it lasts.
- Qualify on the real numbers. Higher fixed rates also raise the stress test rate. Our stress test guide shows how much you can borrow.
If you are selling
- Price from recent sales, not last spring’s. The Home Price Index is down 3.4% nationally over the year, and Ontario is weaker than average.
- Expect fewer, more careful buyers. CREA expects some buyers to wait for clarity on rates, so homes that are priced right and well prepared will stand out.
- Know your number first. A free home evaluation based on comparable local sales is a better starting point than national averages.
Dates to watch
- October 26, 2026: Ontario municipal elections, with housing a main issue across the GTA.
- October 28, 2026: Bank of Canada rate decision and Monetary Policy Report. The policy rate has been 2.25% since October 2025. Our rate decision preview covers what to expect.
- November 17, 2026: CREA’s October statistics release.
FAQ
How much did Canadian home sales fall in September 2026?
National sales fell 2.3% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Actual sales were 7.7% lower than in September 2025, according to CREA.
What is CREA’s new 2026 home sales forecast?
CREA now expects 444,530 resale transactions in 2026, down 5.2% from 2025. In July it forecast 463,336 sales, a 1.4% decline.
What does CREA expect for home prices in 2026 and 2027?
A national average price of $681,681 in 2026, up 0.2%, and $689,909 in 2027, up 1.2%. For Ontario, CREA expects the 2026 average price to fall 3%.
Why did CREA lower its forecast again?
CREA cited the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates, uncertainty about variable rates and expectations that the Bank of Canada will raise rates, with markets pricing in about 100 basis points of hikes over the next year.
Is Canada in a buyer’s market?
Not by CREA’s measures. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 48.8% and there were 4.9 months of inventory in September, both within the range CREA considers balanced. Conditions vary by city and home type.
When is the next CREA housing data release?
CREA’s October 2026 statistics are scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026.
Sources
- CREA, Canadian Home Sales Pull Back in September, October 16, 2026, and CREA national statistics
- CREA, CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast, October 16, 2026
- CREA, CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast, July 15, 2026
- BNN Bloomberg / The Canadian Press, CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year, October 16, 2026 (January and April forecast figures)
- TRREB September 2026 GTA figures, as reported in our September market report
Featured image: Local Toronto media library.
This is general market information, not financial or mortgage advice. Local Toronto, HomeLife Landmark Realty Inc., Brokerage.